The federal government incurred a deficit of $268 billion for the first nine months of fiscal year 2008, CBO estimates, $148 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period in 2007. About $79 billion of that change is due to the distribution to individuals of the tax rebates enacted in the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. Compared with their level in 2007, outlays have risen by more than 6 percent, whereas revenues have declined by about 1 percent.
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The surplus for the month this year was about $51 billion, CBO estimates, $23 billion more than the corresponding figure last year. The increase in the June surplus is largely attributable to certain one-time receipts and to differences in the timing of some payments. Adjusted for those factors, the surplus would have been lower than it was last June, even in the absence of rebate payments, which totaled $28 billion this June.
CBO estimates that net receipts were about $21 billion (or 8 percent) lower this June than they were in June 2007. Nearly all of the decline—$19 billion—can be attributed to payments to individuals of the tax rebates (in addition, an estimated $9 billion of those rebates was recorded as outlays).