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Home :  Federal Budget & Tax : 
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Thursday, May 29, 2008

DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 29, 2007

Economy -- It's Not A Recssion, per CEA Chair: Edward Lazear, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, said yesterday that, of the five measures the private National Bureau of Economic Research uses to date the start and end of recessions, only one--sales in retail and manufacturing--"are declining at rates commensurate with prior recessions." Recent job losses are at "less than half the rate that prevailed during the mild recession of 2001." Payrolls have declined four months in a row.

Contracting -- But It's Contracting: Purchases by federal agencies will drop by double digits in fiscal 2009, with most of the decline coming from the Defense Department, according to a forecast by a federal market research firm. Contract spending will drop by more than 10 percent from fiscal 2008 to fiscal 2009, from $490.7 billion to $440.4 billion. Story.

Taxes -- And White House Warns on Tax Hikes: Gloom marked the fifth aniversary of the 2003 tax cuts, with the White House predicting that the largest tax increase in history is looming: "[i]f the President's tax relief is allowed to expire at the end of 2010, Americans will pay about $280 billion more in taxes each year. With the largest tax increase in history looming, Congress should make the President's tax relief permanent." Fact Sheet.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:44:03 AM



Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Hi (Economist) Mom!

I just wanted to alert readers of a new blog we've been reading: EconomistMom - "where analytical rigor meets a mother's intuition."

Authored by economist and mom Diane Lim Rogers of the Concord Coalition, the blog's "particular focus [is] on the economics of fiscal responsibility," but Rogers also writes about broader issues.

She's been on a roll lately, explaining the trap of the "largest tax increase in history" rhetoric, expressing frustration about the 'extenders' tax cuts, and righteously high-fiving Steven Pearlstein for his column that connects the dots of the various economic woes of the day.

Good stuff.



Posted by Craig Jennings, 11:06:43 AM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 28, 2008

Economy -- Consumer Confidence Drops to 16-Year Low: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households, fell to its lowest level since October 1992. "Weakening business and job conditions coupled with growing pessimism about the short-term future have further depleted consumers' confidence in the overall state of the economy." Press Release.

Government Oversight -- Defense Inspectors Stretched Thin: Pentagon auditors say billions of dollars in military spending is going unchecked because they are having trouble keeping pace with the ever-expanding defense budget and combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, Government Executive magazine reports today. 10 years ago, a single auditor would have reviewed some $642 million in defense contracts, individual investigators are now charged with auditing more than $2 billion in spending. Story.

WSJ Expose -- Bearing the Bad News: The Wall Street Journal opens a three-part expose today of the fall of Bear, Stearns. Part One: As the firm's fortunes spiraled downward, executives squabbled over raising capital and cutting its inventory of mortgages. Part Two: Executives believed they were about to turn a corner, but rumors and fear sent clients, trading partners and lenders fleeing. Part Three: The Fed pressured Bear Stearns to sell itself, but a misstep in the hastily drawn agreement nearly scuttled the deal.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 10:55:05 AM



Tuesday, May 27, 2008

DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 27, 2008

Housing -- Market Collapse Accelerates: Prices of single-family homes declined a record 14.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier. Year-to-year prices fell less than three percent during the worst drop in the last housing recession, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller national home price index, released this morning.

War Supplemental -- House to Take Bill Up Again After Break: One casualty of the congressional congestion in the weeks prior to the Memorial Day recess was the war supplemental, which will be taken up by the House once again when Congress returns. The House bid to fund the war through much of FY09 failed; the Senate adopted the largest appropriations bill in history, which included that funding, on May 22.

Defense Bill -- Nussle Calls Earmarks Item "Veto Bait": OMB Director Jim Nussle called an earmarks provision included in the House defense authorization bill "veto bait" last week. A spokeswoman for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said the administration's concerns would be noted, but pointed out the provision "had unanimous, bipartisan support in the Armed Services Committee." Story.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:58:33 AM



Friday, May 23, 2008

DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 23, 2008

Supplemental -- Senate OKs $250 Bn in War, Domestic Funds:
Voting 70-26, the Senate approved a $165 billion amendment to a war supplemental funding bill that would fund the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan until a few months into the next president's term. The chamber also agreed (75-22) to include a package of domestic spending items including a $52 billion expansion of the GI bill, an $11 billion extension unemployment insurance benefits, and a host of other programs ranging from Gulf Coast reconstruction to emergency heating assistance. The $250 billion package would, by a large margin, set a new record for supplemental spending.

Contracting -- House Adds Reform Measure to FY DoD Authorization:
By a voice vote, the House has included as an amendment to the FY 2009 Defense Authorization bill (HR 5658) Rep. Henry Waxman's (D-CA) Clean Contracting Act. Waxman's amendment bundles a set of contracting reform measures, including language from HR 3033 to establish a database of contractors in violation of contracting rules and from HR 5712 to require contractors to disclose to the government instances of waste, fraud, and abuse of overseas contracts.

Farm Bill -- How Laws Are Made, the Comedy: ... In which a clerical error results in the deletion of a 34-page section of a 673-page farm bill from a package sent to the president, with the House and Senate twice voting to overrule a bill twice vetoed by the president. Legislation ensues. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) laughed when asked to recount her initial reaction to the clerical error. "Uncustomarily crude," the Speaker replied, declining to reveal the expletive she uttered. Analysis of Snafu.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:59:03 AM



Thursday, May 22, 2008

DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 22, 2008

Budget -- Timing of Budget Resolution Vote Uncertain: Due to clerical and constitutional issues involving the farm bill, the FY09 budget resolution may not be brought to a House or Senate vote until after Congress returns in June from the weeklong Memorial Day recess. Of historical note, House passage of the resolution would increase the national debt limit to $10.615 trillion -- that's eleven figures, for the first time. For more on the budget see blog below.

Taxes -- House Passes Extenders Package w. Offsets: By a vote of 263-160, 19 votes short of the number necessary for a veto override, the House adopted a $55 billion package of one-year tax break extensions. The bill is revenue-neutral, and for this drew a veto threat from the White House. It expands the refundable child tax credit, creates a new standard deduction for property taxes, and extends a raft of renewable energy provisions. It differs from the Senate version, which provides two-year extensions, without offsets. JCT Bill Summary.

Earmarks -- Restive GOP Pressures McConnell on Reforms: Led by Sens. Sam Brownback (R-KS), Jim DeMint (R-SC), and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), several GOP senators are urging Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to adopt earmarks reforms proposed by Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN). The Lugar reforms would apply to the Senate GOP conference, require that earmarks contained in authorization, appropriations and tax bills be disclosed in legislative text, make them searchable on the Internet, mandate disclosure of their beneficiaries, and direct money "saved" from deleted earmarks toward deficit reduction. Story.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 10:38:14 AM



House, Senate Set to Approve Budget Resolution

The House and Senate are set to vote on the FY 2009 Congressional Budget Resolution today. OMB Watch sent letters of support for the resolution to both the House and Senate Budget Committees yesterday (House letter, Senate letter). The letters highlight the positive (and negative) aspects of the resolution, as well as the recent historical difficulty of enacting a budget resolution during an election year (hasn't happened since 2000).

The resolution is good, but not great. Hopefully its enactment will help develop momentum for Congress to continue to draft and pass more fiscally-responsible, responsive fiscal policies in 2008 and beyond.

Related Materials:
Text of Conference Agreement
Statement of Conference Managers
Conrad/Spratt Joint Press Release
SBC: Budget Resolution Conference Agreement Overview
HBC: Highlights of the FY2009 Budget Resolution



Posted by Adam Hughes, 09:02:59 AM



Wednesday, May 21, 2008

DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 21, 2008

Earmarks -- House Cmte. Chair to Ignore Bush Order: Earlier this year, the president issued an Executive Order barring government agencies from using funds for earmarks added in House and Senate committee or conference report instead of the original bill's language. Per House Armed Services chair Ike Skelton (D-MO)'s spokeswoman: the "committee does not believe and does not acknowledge the president's assertion that report language should have no weight. The president's executive order would tear away years of history and tradition concerning the relationship between Congress and the Department of Defense." Story.

Budget Resolution -- On Eve of Vote, a Tax Dispute: With a vote on final passage expected for the FY09 budget resolution this week, a difference of opinion about it persists. Senate Budget Committee ranking member Judd Gregg (R-NH): "It includes the largest tax increase in history." Center on Budget: "This year's budget plan does not include a tax increase. It actually calls for a $340 billion reduction in revenues, reflecting its assumption that Congress will extend some parts of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts without offsetting the costs." CBPP Statement.

Taxes -- Baucus Open to Paying for Extenders: Following a meeting with House Ways and Mean chair Charles Rangel (D-NY), Senate Finance Committee chair Max Baucus (D-MT) said of the tax changes to the treatment of deferred compensation paid by managers of offshore hedge funds and the delay for nine years the implementation of the worldwide interest allocation rule -- which Rangel proposes to use to pay for his extenders bill: "I think those are plausible offsets." But Baucus' extenders package is broader and provides for two-year extenders; Rangel's are for one year.

Contracting -- Fair Share Act Attached to Veterans Tax Bill: Yesterday, the House passed (403-0) a tax bill aimed at veterans and servicemembers (HR 6081) that includes language from the Fair Share Act of 2008 (HR 5602). The Fair Share Act would prevent US firms working on federal contracts and employing American workers through foreign shell companies from avoiding paying payroll taxes. The measure had been approved by the House in April when it passed The Taxpayer Assistance and Simplification Act of 2008 (HR 5719) in April.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:44:02 AM



Tuesday, May 20, 2008

DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 20, 2008

Housing -- Senate Banking Compromise Mark-Up Today: The Senate Banking Committee's compromise housing package, the Federal Housing Finance Regulatory Reform Act, will be marked up by the committee this morning. The bill, which provides $300 billion in mortgage guarantees, includes "major efforts to help prevent the rising number of foreclosures, to create more affordable housing for Americans and to reform the regulation of government-sponsored [housing finance] enterprises in order to improve their role in the housing finance system." Committee Release.

Farm Bill -- Veto and Override Vote Loom Ahead: Congress awaits action from the president on a new five-year farm bill (H.R. 2419), which passed both houses by a veto-proof margin during the week of May 12. The $289 billion, five-year measure includes a $10 billion increase in domestic and international nutrition programs over 10 years. The Senate's 81-15 vote was the widest margin for a farm bill since 1973. NYT Analysis.

Taxes -- HSAs Benefit Wealthy; Used as Tax Breaks: A Government Accountability Office (GAO) report indicates that Health Savings Accounts (HSA) are used disproportionately by affluent households. The GAO findings also suggest that HSAs are being used extensively as tax shelters. The average adjusted gross income of tax filers who made HSA contributions in 2005 was $139,000, as compared to $57,000 for all other tax filers under age 65. GAO Report. CBPP Comment.

Taxes -- Sup Ct OKs State Bond Tax Breaks: In a 7-2 vote yesterday, the Supreme Court ruled that states may offer special tax breaks for investing in their municipal bonds. All 50 states had asked the court to uphold Kentucky's system of exempting its residents from paying taxes on the interest from the state's own bonds. Justice Souter wrote the opinion; JUstices Alito and Kennedy dissented. Story.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 10:25:38 AM



Monday, May 19, 2008

I am a Budget Hero
And So Can You

American Public Media's Marketplace has produced an on-line game called Budget Hero, which allows players to try their hand at balancing the federal budget. Pick your policy priorities and fund them with real-life pay-fors. Or don't pay for them and see what year your budget goes bust.

Once you've tackled the Budget Hero challenge and seen how you stack up against other players, Marketplace welcomes your insights into how the game could be improved, what you learned, how it affected your views on the election or any other thoughts on the game. You can do this through the "Comments" feature at the end of the game.

On your mark, get set, Go!



Posted by Dana Chasin, 12:08:48 PM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 19, 2008

Among the major outstanding fiscal issues likely to see congressional action this week, in advance of the Memorial Day recess:

Budget Resolution -- An FY09 Budget by Friday?: The budget resolution conference committee is expected to meet to hash out the FY09 budget resolution. Conferees and leaders are hoping to approve the budget before lawmakers leave town for the Memorial Day recess. If it is approved, it will mark the first time since 2000 that Congress has been able to agree on a budget blueprint in an election year. Story.

War Supplemental -- Senate Action This Week: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has indicated that the Senate will begin debate on a $193 war funding bill this week. The Senate will take up the House version of the bill and offer Senate Appropriations Committee language to replace the recently-passed House amendments on domestic spending and war policy. The Senate's bill contains $10 billion more in domestic funding but does not offset the cost of an expansion of the GI Bill. A final vote on the bill is not expected before the Memorial Day recess.

Taxes -- Extenders to Hit House Floor?: The House this week will take up a $57 billion tax bill extending and expanding a range of incentives dealing with renewable energy production, conservation, and individual and business tax breaks. The measure does not include a one-year fix for the alternative minimum tax, because that would cost $62 billion and Democrats have not identified the appropriate offsets.

Housing --- Senate Banking Mark-Up Set for Tomorrow:The Senate Banking Committee is slated Tuesday to mark up its measure that would provide new oversight to mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with language that would use the two's assets to fund a proposal to insure up to $300 billion in new mortgages for financially troubled borrowers. A deal on the bill could result in passage of an overall package that would also reform the FHA's mortgage insurance program and provide housing-related tax breaks.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 10:04:39 AM



Friday, May 16, 2008

GI Bill Surtax Would Affect 0.3% of All Taxpayers

When the House approved the domestic spending amendment to the war supplemental spending bill, it approved not only a $52 billion expansion of the GI Bill, but a 0.5% surtax on income for millionaire couples (individuals earning more than $500,000).

According a recent Citizens for Tax Justice report, the tax would affect about 0.3% of all taxpayers.

"The surtax would simply scale back the Bush tax cuts for the richest 0.3 percent of taxpayers, by an average of just 7 percent, to help the men and women returning from the wars and their families," said Robert S. McIntyre, director of Citizens for Tax Justice. "Lawmakers who oppose this proposal will prove that they really do value tax cuts for the wealthy over all else."
Annual effects of a proposed 0.47% surtax on adjusted gross income in excess of $1 million for married couples and $500,000 for others (at 2007 levels)
Number affected by surtax% of all taxpayers affectedTotal tax change
($-billion)
Average tax change
Married couples 291,300 0.5% $+3.0 $+10,240
Others 152,500 0.2% +0.9 +5,960
ALL 443,800 0.3% +3.9 +8,770
Source: Citizens for Tax Justice, "Surtax on Millionaires to Help Veterans Would Be A Tiny Sacrifice for the Richest 0.3 Percent of Taxpayers"
(click here to see full report chart)


Posted by Craig Jennings, 10:37:13 AM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 16, 2008

Tax Policy -- W&M Approves Extenders; Rejects AMT Patch: By a mostly party-line vote of 25-12, the House Ways and Means Committee approved at $57 billion tax package of an assortment of tax breaks yesterday. The committee also voted down a Republican-offered unpaid-for one-year AMT patch. The bill is expected to be on the House floor next week.

War Supplemental -- House Rejects War Funding Portion of War Sup: Anti-war Democrats voted "no" and 132 protesting Republicans voted "present" to defeat an amendment that would fund war operations in Iraq and Afghanistan to a war funding bill. A domestic spending package was approved along with provisions aimed at changing war policy. The Senate is expected to add war funds when it votes on the bill, probably after the Memorial Day break.

Farm Bill -- House and Senate Pass By Wide Margins: The Senate passed the farm bill reauthorization yesterday by a wide margin: 81-15, well above the 67 needed to override a promised presidential veto of the bill. The House has also passed the bill by much more than needed to override a veto in that chamber. The bill has almost $300 billion in spending over the next five years, with 73 percent of that spending going to people in poverty.



Posted by Craig Jennings, 09:01:01 AM



Thursday, May 15, 2008

DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 15, 2008

War Supplemental -- House and Senate Action Today: The House is scheduled to vote on a $183.7 billion war supplemental spending package today. The Senate Appropriations Committee will begin work on marking up companion legislation also today. but it's unlikely a bill will reach President Bush by the Memorial Day break. House Amendments to Bill.

Unemployment Insurance -- House, Senate Approps Votes Slated: The full House and the Senate Appropriations Committee are scheduled to vote on an amendment to the war supplemental to extend UI benefits. The House bill provides a 13-week extension in most states, 20 weeks in with the highest unemployment rates -- it's 33 weeks in the Senate version. The percentage of workers who exhaust unemployment benefits currently is 36 percent, higher than at the beginning of any of the past five recessions.

Tax Policy -- Ways and Means to Mark Up Extenders: The extenders package covers dozens of tax credits and breaks, costing $57 billion. On top of that, , GOP members of the panel are expected to propose a one-year AMT unpatch, unpaid for, during the mark up. H.R. 6049 Energy and Tax Extenders Bill Summary. JCT Scoring.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:55:39 AM



Wednesday, May 14, 2008

DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 14, 2008

PAYGO -- Congress Pays Heed to PAYGO: On three fronts, Congress paid heed to the principles of PAYGO this week, planning to pay for tax cuts and spending increases in the farm bill, the tax extenders package, and (most surprsingly; see below) the supplemental. The farm bill's new tax credits would be paid for, in part, by limiting the net operating loss carryback to $200,000 on businesses' non-agriculture income if they receive commodity payments. The extenders would raise revenue by limiting the deferral of offshore corporate income. That's the plan for now. Here's how PAYGO works.

War Supplemental -- Compromised Reached with Blue Dogs?: Politco's The Crypt is saying that House Democratic leadership will offset a $52 billion expansion of the GI Bill with a half percentage-point increase on income for couples earning more than $1 million. (CongressDaily reports that the increase applies to individuals earning more than $500,000 as well).

Taxes -- Senate Finance Hears Ideas on Tax Reform: The Senate Finance Committee heard ideas from left, center, and right on individual income tax reform yesterday at Cracking the Code, the first of three hearings chair Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) plans in the coming months. From AMT to the estate tax, the individual income tax code will probably see significant reform in the next couple of years. The Brookings Perspective.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:58:57 AM



Tuesday, May 13, 2008

DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 13, 2008

Taxes -- Rangel Eyeing Extender Offsets: House Ways and Means chair Rep. Charles B. Rangel (D-NY) is sifting through potential revenue-raisers to pay for a set of tax credit and deduction extensions expected to hit the House floor by or immediately after Memorial Day. A prime contender: offshore nonqualified deferred compensation, which would defray $23 billion. Less likely: "The carried interest is dead on arrival. Schumer killed the whole thing. I expect that he would do the same in the Senate — in a quiet way, behind the scenes — on Rangel's 'payfor,'" a lobbyist said.

War Supplemental -- House Looking for GI Bill Offsets: To get the House Blue Dog coalition to back a war supplemental spending bill, Democratic leadership is mulling its options to offset a $52 billion GI Bill expansion. CongressDaily reports ($) that one plan would involve closing the carried interest loophole.

Budget -- Resolution at Last; Deal Sealed: Senate Budget Committee chair Kent Conrad (D-ND) announced yesterday that budget resolution negotiators had reached a deal last Friday, but its terms were still under seal under conferees can be named and meet. The domestic discretionary topline is close to $1.012 trillion.

Tax Expenditures -- JCT Releases "Reconsideration": Yesterday, the Joint Committee on Taxation released an examination of federal tax expenditures -- $1 trillion in annual spending that goes relatively unnoticed, because it is comprised of tax credits, deductions, exemptions, exclusions, deferrals, and rate reductions not considered in the appropriations process. JCT's "Reconsideration".



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:59:16 AM



Monday, May 12, 2008

Time for a Little Emergency Check

With Congress and President Bush entering negotiations over the next tranche of war funding, via an emergency supplemental appropriations bill, now is a good time for a little emergency check.

As the lead editorial in today's Washington Post, Not an Emergency, points out, "[f]ive years into paying for two wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan, it's outrageous that so much of the financing continues to be approved outside the normal budget process, through 'emergency' spending bills that must be passed, must be passed in a hurry..."

So, five years to the month after "mission accomplished," after half a trillion dollars in war spending through supplementals, maybe it's time to focus attention on a budget reform proposal that has been circulating in Washington for, well, at least five years. It seeks to end a practice, which, as we have said "obscures or distorts important aspects of the fiscal impact of federal spending and, therefore, undermines the general fiscal responsibility of the federal government."

This proposal would re-define "emergency" for supplemental appropriations purposes as:

  • an essential or vital expenditure, not one that is merely useful or beneficial
  • sudden—quickly coming into being, not building up over time
  • urgent—pressing and compelling, requiring immediate action
  • unforeseen—not predictable or seen beforehand as a coming need
  • not permanent—the need is temporary in nature

So, who has been issuing this salutary proposal again and again, year in, year out, while it falls on deaf ears in the rest of official Washington?

None other than... President Bush.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 04:19:45 PM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 12, 2008

With two weeks before the Memorial Day break, Congress will focus on a few key outstanding fiscal policy issues, foremost among them:

  • Budget Resolution -- Mind the Cap Gap: Senior congressional budget committee staffers say that if compromise is not reached and a budget resolution passed before the break, Congress will not have an FY09 budget. A small House-Senate discretionary spending cap gap -- about $1.5 billion -- remains to be resolved. OMBW Statement.

  • War Supplemental -- Domestic Content Dispute: President Bush has threatened to veto a war supplemental bill with any domestic spending content. Both the House and Senate supplemental bills have such content -- including a GI-style bill for Iraq war veterans and an unemployment benefits extension provision -- amid disagreement over what needs to comply with PAYGO, and how. WSJ Story.

Major fiscal policy items unlikely to see floor action until after the Memorial Day break:

  • Housing -- Will Lawmakers Hear about it Back Home?: The $2.7 billion mortgage refinance bill providing $300 billion in loan FHA guarantees, passed by the House last week, faces significant obstacles in the Senate and the administration. Its fate may be cast by what lawmakers hear from constituents about the issue during "district work" week at the end of the month. NYT Editorial.

  • Taxes -- AMT Patch and Popular Extenders: The House plans to address these two issues in two bills and, probably, to see that both are paid for -- and may act before Memorial Day. The Senate will act on a bill combining the issues, with 41 GOP Senators refusing to pay for them; Senate floor action isn't expected 'til June. Senate Bill Summary.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:58:19 AM



Friday, May 09, 2008

War Supplemental Update: Blue Dogs Balk at Waiving PAYGO for GI Bill Extension

Just when Democratic House leadership thought it was safe to bring a $183.6* billion war supplemental spending bill to the House floor for a vote, the Blue Dog coalition bares their teeth. We briefly mentioned yesterday that the coalition has expressed their displeasure that an expansion of college benefits for veterans would not be offset. By signaling that they would not support the rules package under which the war supp would be debated, they have induced Democratic leadership to find offsets, thus postponing a vote until at least next week.

The provision is question is know in the Senate as the Post 9/11 Veterans Educational Assistance Act of 2008 (S. 22), a bill introduced by Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) and cosponsored by 57 senators. The CBO scored the bill as costing $40 million the first year, $680 million the second, and totalling almost $52 billion over ten years.

Blue Dogs' insistence on offsetting these costs has drawn the ire of the Out of Iraq Caucus. Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D-NY) was incredulous ($). "How can the Blue Dog Coalition possibly say that an expansion of education benefits is too costly when their votes to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to fight in Iraq violate the same pay-as-you-go rules they claim to so deeply respect? It's an inconsistent logic."

But, is Hinchey right to insist the Blue Dogs selectively apply PAYGO?

*That's the commonly-used dollar amount in press accounts. That number, however, does not include $11 billion for extended unemployment benefits (over 10 ten years) and $720 million for expanded GI Bill benefits (over 2 years). With those factored in, the bill would be about $200 billion



Continue reading...

Posted by Craig Jennings, 02:55:31 PM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 9, 2008

Housing -- House Passes Two Key Housing Bills: Yesterday, the House passed the first two bills to clear the chamber addressing the nation's housing sector crisis. The first, the Neighborhood Stabilization Act, which was adopted 239-188, establishes a $15 billion, HUD-administered loan and grant program for the purchase and rehabilitation of vacant, foreclosed homes. The second, an FHA mortgage refinance program providing up to $300 billion in loan guarantees at a cost of $1.7 billion over five years, passed 266-154. Bill Summary. Both bills face veto threats.

Farm Bill -- Compromise Reached but Bush Promises Veto: After months of negotiations, congressional leaders announced yesterday that they had concluded a compromise on H.R. 2419, providing a five-year farm policy measure with some reforms, including lowered income threshold for eligibility to receive farm payments and an optional crop revenue program. The final votes will be watched for the possibility of an override of a veto promised by President Bush. Story.

Infrastructure -- CBO Chief Doubts Stimulus Value: Peter Orszag, director of the Congressional Budget Office, said yesterday that it was unclear how quickly federal infrastructure projects could provide a boost to the economy, as some lawmakers have suggested, because they can often have lengthy planning and permitting stages. "How quickly, if you're going to spend $100 on this project, what share of that $100 will you get out the door rapidly?" he asked at a joint hearing of the House Budget Committee and the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. Testimony and Charts.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:12:34 AM



Thursday, May 08, 2008

DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 8, 2008

War Supplemental -- Blue Dogs Hold Line on PAYGO: Frustrating House Democratic leadership efforts to bring to a vote on the $183.6 billion war supplemental spending bill to the House floor today, the Blue Dog coalition is balking at supporting the rules under which the bill would be considered. Their concern is that a measure to increase GI Bill funding violates pay-as-you-go rules, because it would be a new entitlement not be offset by revenue increases or spending decreases.

Taxes -- Senate Dems Push Windfall Profits Tax on Big Oil: Yesterday, Senate Democrats unveiled legislation that would levy a new 25 percent tax on major oil-producing companies that do not reinvest their profits in increased capacity or renewable energy technologies and repeal a tax deduction provided to them as manufacturers of oil and gas products. The Consumer-First Energy Act would use the revenues from the 25 percent "Windfall Profits Tax" for new consumer price protections, and renewable energy development and energy efficiency technologies. The repeal of the Section 199 manufacturing tax credit for the five largest oil and gas companies would raise $17 billion over 10 years to pay for the energy independence trust fund.

Taxes -- New York Senate Adopts Gas Tax Holiday: The New York State Senate approved a bill yesterday that would create a "summer gas tax holiday" by eliminating three state taxes on motor fuel. The bill would suspend 32 cents per gallon in taxes from Memorial Day through Labor Day. While the bill passed the Republican-controlled Senate by a vote of 46-15, it is expected to die in the Democratic-controlled state Assembly. Sen. Liz Krueger (D), an opponent of the bill, said it was "obviously meant to prey on the desperate need for relief of New York's suffering drivers."

Posted by Dana Chasin, 10:13:17 AM



Wednesday, May 07, 2008

DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 7, 2008

Budget -- Conferees Converge on Compromise, per Conrad: Senate Budget Chairman Kent Conrad (D-ND) said yesterday that FY09 budget resolution negotiators have only one remaining issue to resolve —— the level of discretionary spending for fiscal 2009 —— before reaching an accord. He said said the difference in discretionary spending between the House and Senate fiscal 2009 budget resolutions is about $1.8 billion now, down from a $4 billion gap at the outset. Background on Budget Debate.

Housing -- CBO Releases Frank Bill Cost Estimate: The Congressional Budget Office has released its long-awaited cost estimate of H.R. 5830, the FHA Housing Stabilization and Homeownership Retention Act of 2008, the bill introduced by House Financial Services Committee chair Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) to create a voluntary FHA mortgage refinance program. The full House will consider the bill today. CBO's estimate of the bill's five-year cost: $2.7 billion.

Supplemental Schedule -- House Vote, Senate Mark-Up Ahead: House Democratic leaders have signaled possible floor action tomorrow on a supplemental appropriations bill that would provide $108.1 billion in fiscal 2008 and $70 billion in 2009 war funding and includes extended unemployment benefits and new education benefits for veterans, upping the price tag above Bush's target. The Senate Appropriations Committee announced plans to mark up its own version of the supplemental tomorrow. CBS News.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:59:59 AM



Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Fed Chief's Opinions on Foreclosure Remedies Differ from Frank Bill Oponents

Congressional opposition to the Frank housing bill is coalescing around apparently dubious propositions ($).

[Antonia Ferrier, spokeswoman for House Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-MO)] also took aim at the [Rep. Barney] Frank proposal. "This bill perversely rewards those who borrowed more than they could afford — their monthly mortgage payments get reduced with the government footing the bill. How is that fair to the millions of Americans who worked hard and paid their mortgages on time? And who ends up holding the bag if all goes south? No surprise, the American taxpayer."

Meanwhile, economist and Fed Chief Ben Bernanke provides an "expert" opinion:

"High rates of delinquency and foreclosure can have substantial spillover effects on the housing market, the financial markets and the broader economy," [Federal Reserve Chairman Ben] Bernanke said Monday..."Therefore, doing what we can to avoid preventable foreclosures is not just in the interest of lenders and borrowers. It's in everybody's interest," he said.

...

The current housing crises has clobbered some borrowers home prices dropped. That left them with mortgages that are bigger than the value of their home. When that's the primary problem, Bernanke said the best solution may be reducing the amount that the borrower owes on the loan or some other permanent modification to the loan.

Fine. Helping distressed homeowners can help everyone. But surely we cannot stand in the way of the the almighty market! That would be disaster.

Republican talking points obtained by Roll Call also suggested housing prices must fall further rather than be propped up by a new government program, an argument also made by [Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL)] Shelby.

"The correction in the housing market is a necessary reaction to a prolonged period of reckless lending and borrowing practices that helped take housing prices to levels that were simply unsustainable. For the market to stabilize, prices will need to return to levels that ordinary Americans can afford," the talking points read.

Or not.

Rising foreclosures add to the glut of unsold homes and that put more downward pressure on prices, aggravating the housing slump, he said. More rapid declines in house prices could have an "adverse impact" on the broader economy and the stability of the financial system, [Bernanke] said.

Photo by Flickr user msabcmom used under a Creative Commons license



Posted by Craig Jennings, 03:11:23 PM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 6, 2008

War Supplemental -- Appropriators Seek Mark-Ups: On both the House and Senate side, senior Appropriations Committee members have asked, or demanded, that mark-ups be held of the president's "emergency" supplemental war funding requests, as is the usual practice. Rep. Jerry Lewis (CA), the ranking House Appropriations Republican: "Never in my 30 years in Congress has there been such an abuse of the processes and rules of the House. We... demand that this polluted, back-door scheme be brought to a halt, and that we return to a proper, fair and transparent appropriations process." Story. Senate Appropriations Committee chair Robert Byrd (D-WV) announced last week that he planned to hold a markup of the supplemental this week. But none has been scheduled yet. Background on Supplemental Procedure.

Taxes -- Gas Tax Holiday a Non-Starter in Congress: It's being discussed today in Indianapolis, Hickory, West Lafayette, Raleigh, and Gary, but not in D.C. Per CQ, when Senate Democrats unveil an energy package later this week, it is not expected to contain a gas tax holiday, said a Senate Democratic aide. "It's a nothing burger. It's not even part of the discussions," the aide said. Many economists, including at least four Nobel Prize winners, have called it bad economic policy.

GSA's Doan -- 'I Lost the Battle': She fought the law and didn't win. In an interview within a week of her departure from her post as General Services Adinistration chief, Lurita Doan recounts her struggles with the bureaucracy, the media, Congress, and the law. After being fired by the White House last week following a 22-month scandal-plagued tenure at GSA, she concludes: "I am proud that I don't play by the rules of Washington." Interview.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:52:43 AM



Monday, May 05, 2008

DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 5, 2008

Taxes -- Americans Split on Gas Tax Holiday: Today's New York Times carries the results of a poll in which "Americans were divided over the merits of the gasoline-tax suspension, which has also been backed by the presumptive Republican nominee, Senator John McCain, and condemned by Mr. Obama as political gimmickry." Meanwhile, the Senate Democratic Leadership is planning to unveil a gas price plan, with the notable omission of a "gas tax holiday." Times Survey.

War Supplemental -- Bush Submits $70bn FY09 Request: On Friday, President Bush formally submitted his request to Congress for $66 billion for the Defense Department and $4 bill for the State Department for ongoing military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. The money would be available to the next president, obviating the need for him or her to submit a request for war spending soon after entering office; but it would also commit moneys that the new leader might have sought to dedicate to some other purpose. Behind the Scenes.

Housing -- Floor Vote on Frank Plan: The plan introduced by Financial Services Committee chair Barney Frank (D-MA) and adopted by the committee last week to provide up to $300 billion in mortgage refinance guarantees is currently slated to come up for a vote by the full House on Wednesday. While the administration has taken no definitive position on the bill, Frank is attaching to his bill, two "sweeteners" -- an FHA mortgage insurance overhaul and revamped oversight of GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- to woo the White House. The Foreclosure Capital.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 10:02:30 AM



Friday, May 02, 2008

DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 2, 2008

Economy -- Jobless Rate Drops from 5.1 to 5.0 Percent: The economy lost only 20,000 jobs, far fewer than in recent months, and the unemployment rate fell from 5.1 to 5.0 percent in April. Roughly 250,000 jobs were lost in the first quarter of the year. Construction companies slashed 61,000 positions in April. Manufacturers cut 46,000 and retailers got rid of 27,000. Those losses were eclipsed by job gains in education and health care, professional and business services, the government and elsewhere. Bloomberg.

Budget Resolution -- Spratt Says Conference Report Imminent: On the strength of this week's Blue Dog Coalition decision not to insist on an AMT/PAYGO reconciliation instruction, House Budget Committee chair Rep. John Spratt (D-SC) said yesterday that "[t]he single most significant [budget resolution] issue remaining is NDD, non-defense discretionary spending. There's a difference between us of about $3.6 billion... If we don't have [a budget] done by the end of next week it will be [early] the following week." Most observers had been pessimistic as recently as this week, with one notable exception.

"Gas Tax Holiday is DOA" -- The Hill: House Democratic leaders have made clear that the gas tax holiday proposal is dead on arrival in that chamber. In explaining why she plans to omit the idea from the energy package that she may try to add to the supplemental Iraq war-spending bill, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said "there's no reason to believe that any moratorium on the gas tax would be passed on to the consumer." UPI Story.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 10:18:54 AM



Thursday, May 01, 2008

DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- May 1, 2008

Economy -- Consumer Spending Down; Commodity Prices Up: With the overall economy growing at a mere 0.6 percent annual rate for the second quarter in a row, consumer spending advanced by only 1 percent. That was down sharply from the 2.9 percent gain for all of 2007 and the 3.1 percent gain for 2006, per the Commerce Department. Since March 2007, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the price of eggs has jumped 35 percent. A gallon of milk is up 23 percent. A loaf of white bread has climbed 16 percent. Consumer Spending; Commodity Prices.

Taxes -- Summer Gas Tax Holiday Fuels Debate: With President Bush and two of the three leading candidates for president in support of a summertime suspension of the 18.4 cent-a-gallon federal gas tax, the proposal is coming under increasingly critical scrutiny. Len Berman, Urban Institute's Tax Policy Center: "Every summer, the refiners are running full out. If the price fell, people would want to drive more and there would be shortages." Harvard Professor Greg Mankiw: "What you learn in Economics 101 is that if producers can't produce much more, when you cut the tax on that good the tax is kept . . . by the suppliers and is not passed on to consumers." Wash. Post.

Stimulus 2.0 -- Democratic Leader Rules Out Action in May: The House will not pass a new economic stimulus bill this month, Democratic leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) said yesterday, in spite of mounting evidence of widespread economic distress. Asked if a second stimulus package might come to a vote in the House before Memorial Day, Reuters reports that Hoyer said: "The honest answer to that is no." Candidates cited for action instead were an Iraq war funding bill, a fiscal 2009 budget blueprint, housing legislation, a major defense bill, and measures dealing with electronic surveillance, consumer safety, agriculture policy and higher education. Story.

Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:50:00 AM




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